Western Sahara: Road to Perdition?

May 15, 2024

In the 2004 briefing “Western Sahara: Road to Perdition?”, Pablo San Martín analyzes the escalating tensions and diminishing prospects for peace in Western Sahara. As the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) approaches the expiration of its mandate in October 2004, the future of the ceasefire and the broader peace process remain uncertain.

San Martín outlines the historical context of the conflict, tracing its origins to the 1975 occupation of Western Sahara by Morocco and Mauritania, following Spain’s withdrawal. The subsequent guerrilla resistance led by the Polisario Front, supported by Algeria, resulted in a protracted war that lasted until 1991, when a UN-brokered peace agreement, known as the Settlement Plan, was established. However, the implementation of the plan has been hindered by disagreements over the voter list for the proposed self-determination referendum. The Polisario Front advocates for a list based on the 1974 Spanish census, while Morocco seeks to include settlers from northern Morocco and ethnic Sahrawis from the south.

The briefing also examines the role of former U.S. Secretary of State James Baker III, appointed as the UN Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy in 1997, in mediating the peace process. His efforts led to the Houston Accords in 1997 and the subsequent Baker Plan II, which proposed a five-year period of autonomy for Western Sahara followed by a referendum on independence. Despite these initiatives, the peace process remains stalled, with both parties entrenched in their positions.

San Martín warns that without significant progress towards a resolution, the fragile ceasefire could collapse, leading to renewed conflict and further instability in the Maghreb region. The briefing underscores the urgency of international intervention and the need for a fair and inclusive approach to the self-determination of the Sahrawi people.